Breaking Down the First-Round Picks for the AEW Continental Cup
With the AEW Continental Cup throwing convention out the window thanks to a chaotic blind-draw format, zero time limits, and a championship belt hanging in the balance, nobody's bracket is safe.
From shocking first-round upsets to high-profile screwjobs that turn the entire landscape on its head, we are breaking down the wild predictions for the opening round and seeing who survives to make the second-round pool.
First Match, First Upset: Matt Sydal defeats Orange Cassidy
The Take: Calling an upset right out of the gate is a bold move that immediately sets the tone for the tournament. Dropping Cassidy in round one subverts expectations and proves that the "blind draw" format isn't just going to protect top-tier babyfaces. Sydal walking away with a surprise win gives him a massive profile boost early on.
Claudio Castagnoli defeats Ace Austin
The Take: Pure power vs. agility, and Claudio is tailor-made for this exact tournament environment. Ace Austin brings incredible offense, but Castagnoli’s raw strength and experience in grueling tournament formats make him a dominant force in the opening round.
Another Upset! Eddie Kingston defeats Jake Doyle
The Take: The inaugural Continental Champion advancing is practically a necessity for the integrity of the tournament's history. Kingston thrives when his back is against the wall in these single-elimination scenarios, and Doyle is the perfect hard-hitting canvas for Eddie to fight through and advance to the pool.
Kyle O'Reilly defeats Roderick Strong
The Take: Easily one of the most technical, intense, and emotionally charged matches on the first-round card. Having KOR pick up the win over his long-time ally gives him major momentum and delivers that classic "friends forced to go to war" narrative that always thrives under Continental Rules.
Brian Cage defeats Hechicero
The Take: A phenomenal contrast in styles. Hechicero’s intricate submission showcase vs. Cage’s sheer, unadulterated power. Cage taking the victory positions him as the terrifying heavy that nobody in the second-round blind draw is going to want to pull out of the hat.
Upset #3! Katsuyori Shibata defeats Nigel McGuinness (with help from The Opps)
The Take: A dream match for pure wrestling purists. Calling for a dirty finish here is a spicy narrative twist—especially under strict Continental Rules where interference is explicitly banned. Having The Opps pull off a slick, undetected distraction or cheap shot allows Shibata to steal the win, leaving Nigel protected while instantly injecting massive heat into Shibata’s run.
Jay White defeats David Finlay
The Take: Bullet Club history and deep-rooted NJPW grudges colliding on AEW turf. Switchblade pulling off the win keeps him primed as a premier, dangerous contender who can scheme his way through any random pool draw in round two.
Upset of the Year?! Jack Perry defeats Jon Moxley (via Will Ospreay screwjob)
The Take: The absolute shocker of the night. Moxley losing in round one means he officially loses his hold on the Continental Championship right then and there. Having Will Ospreay pull the strings behind the referee’s back or capitalize on a blind spot directly defies the "no interference" rule, creating a massive, explosive angle. It protects Moxley's aura, immediately detonates a huge feud between Mox and Ospreay, and elevates Jack Perry into the second round holding the ultimate target on his back.
Round 2 Pool (The Surviving 8)
Assuming these results hold, here is the official 8-man pool heading into the second blind draw:
Matt Sydal
Claudio Castagnoli
Eddie Kingston
Kyle O'Reilly
Brian Cage
Katsuyori Shibata
Jay White
Jack Perry
If this plays out, that second-round draw is going to be completely wide open—and with Moxley out, the race for the hardware gets wildly unpredictable.
